There are obvious differences between the events of 1618-1648 in Europe and those of 2011-2014 in the Middle East. But the similarities are many â and sobering. Three and a half years after the dawn of the âArab Spring,â there is a real possibility that we are witnessing the early phase of a prolonged, costly, and deadly struggle; as bad as things are, they could well become worse.
There are limits to what outsiders can do. Sometimes, policymakers need to focus on preventing things from getting worse, rather than on ambitious agendas for improvement; this is one of those times. There is no room for illusions. Regime change is no panacea; it can be difficult to achieve and nearly impossible to consolidate. Negotiations cannot resolve all or even most conflicts.
Likewise, diplomacy can work in Syria only if it accepts the reality on the ground (including the survival of the Assad regime for the foreseeable future), rather than seeking to transform it. The answer is not to be found in drawing new maps, though once populations have shifted and political stability has been restored, recognition of new borders might prove both desirable and viable.
Policymakers must recognize their limits. For now and for the foreseeable future â until a new local order emerges or exhaustion sets in â the Middle East will be less a problem to be solved than a condition to be managed. The New Thirty Yearsâ War. By Richard N. Haass (oprindeligt i New York Times, gengivet mange steder)
Hvis prof. Haas fĂ„r ret, er strĂžmmen over Middelhavet kun i sin spĂŠde vorden. Danske asylcentre er hĂ„rdt presset “lige nu.” Der er grund til at tro, det ikke er spor midlertidigt. Danske politikere gĂ„r stadig pĂ„ line mellem opinionen og konventionerne, mens de snakker smĂ„justeringer. De vil ikke batte noget, Danmark og Europa er reelt uden lederskab i skĂŠbnesspĂžrgsmĂ„let. Danmark har lurepasset ved at sende dem til Sverige, danske kommuner spiller aben over til naboerne, Italien spiller aben op til Tyskland. Det er uholdbart at have sĂ„ fejge ledere, nu hvor ingen lĂŠngere kan pĂ„berĂ„be sig god tro om konsekvenserne. De forĂ„rsager irreperable skader inden de forsinket ankommer til den konklusion, at Flygtningekonventionen er uholdbar, og at der foregĂ„r et gigantisk misbrug af den oveni.  Millions of migrants pour into Italy.
“Fortress Europe” is being attacked, and the foothold to getting into the EU lies along the Italian coastlines. Religious or intertribal conflicts, merciless dictatorships, famines and internal pogroms are pushing an enormous mass of people to seek salvation in emigration, a phenomenon that has taken on alarming dimensions in recent months. It is true that our secret services are alarmed. Very much so. In their reports they stress that the recent pogroms are attributable to two main factors: “battles between militias in Libya and the civil war in Syria.”
They will arrive not only in large numbers but they will soon be enraged. Our welcoming services, in truth, are saturated now and it aggravates the discomfort of the migrants, which in turn triggers protests, often violent, such as self-mutilation and en masse fleeing.
Kunstner og gallerist fĂžr retssag: Frihedsrettighederne i Sverige er under pres
I begyndelsen af juli var der fernisering pĂ„ gadekunstneren Dan Park ‘s soloudstilling i Galleri Rönnquist & Rönnquist i det centrale MalmĂž. Ă bningen af udstillingen fik imidlertid et noget andet forlĂžb end kunstferniseringer flest. FĂžr minutter efter at udstillingen var Ă„bnet, mĂždte svensk politi talstĂŠrkt op, beslaglagde ni vĂŠrker (alle de udstillede vĂŠrker kan ses her) og og tog kunstneren med pĂ„ stationen. Dan Park blev senere samme aften anholdt og herefter sendt til fĂŠngslet i Ystad, hvor han har siddet indespĂŠrret siden.
Onsdag 6. august skal Dan Park i retten i MalmÞ, hvor det skal afgÞres om, kunstneren har gjort sig skyldig i hetz mod folkegruppe (svarer til den danske racismeparagraf, red.). OgsÄ gallerist Henrik Rönnquist skal mÞde i retten anklaget efter samme paragraf. Hvis Dan Park bliver dÞmt vil det i givet fald vÊre tredje gang i Är, at han dÞmmes for hetz mod folkegruppe. Kunstneren har forelÞbig tilbragt to mÄneder i fÊngsel i 2014.
BÄde Dan Park og Henrik Rönnquist mener, at den kunstneriske ytringsfrihed og i sidste ende de demokratiske rettigheder er under pres i Sverige, og de opfordrer derfor alle, der stÞtter op om disse rettigheder til at mÞde op ved retten. Retssagen afholdes onsdag fra klokken 9 til 16 i Malmö tingsrÀtt, RÀttscentrum, SÀkerhetssalen, Porslinsgatan 4a i MalmÞ.